{"id":128673,"date":"2026-07-03T18:25:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T13:25:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/?p=128673"},"modified":"2026-07-03T18:25:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T13:25:21","slug":"el-nino-to-develop-into-strong-event-between-july-and-september-un-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/128673\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o to develop into strong event between July and September, UN warns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Web desk(National Times)- El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0<\/a>will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of extreme weather, the United Nations weather and climate agency warned on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The World Meteorological Organisation said El Ni\u00f1o had already set in, and would quickly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conditions oscillate between El Ni\u00f1o and its opposite La Ni\u00f1a, with neutral conditions in between.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The WMO\u2019s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards \u201ca rapid development into a strong El Ni\u00f1o event during July-September\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UN agency classifies El Ni\u00f1o events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning it is set to reach the third-highest level out of four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of \u2026 extreme weather events in many parts of the world,\u201d the WMO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Heatwave risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Geneva-based agency said that forecasts produced by leading global climate centres, using different models, indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSeasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2\u00b0C in key monitoring regions,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The models show \u201cremarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook\u201d, the WMO said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe.\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMeanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last El Ni\u00f1o contributed<\/a> to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55\u00b0C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While El Ni\u00f1o usually peaks between November and February, the resulting spike in temperatures typically comes later down the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,\u201d said WMO chief Celeste Saulo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The WMO said it was stepping up early warning support to help guide preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAdvanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,\u201d said Saulo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>Temperature impact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north \u2014 covering nearly all populated areas outside the polar regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the July to September rainfall outlook is consistent with a strengthening El Ni\u00f1o, with above-normal rainfall forecast in some areas such as portions of the southwestern United States, and below normal forecast across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Ni\u00f1o events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the agency believes it can amplify the associated effects, because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the northern hemisphere summer, warm waters associated with El Ni\u00f1o can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, while hindering their development in the Atlantic Ocean.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Web desk(National Times)- El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0will quickly develop into a strong event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of extreme weather, the United Nations weather and climate agency warned on Friday. The World Meteorological Organisation said El Ni\u00f1o had already set in, and would quickly gain strength, as it warned countries to brace for impact. 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