{"id":125359,"date":"2026-05-06T12:03:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T07:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/?p=125359"},"modified":"2026-05-06T12:03:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T07:03:14","slug":"next-india-pakistan-conflict-may-be-more-dangerous-analysts-warn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/","title":{"rendered":"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

WASHINGTON(National Times)- On the first anniversary of the\u00a0May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict,<\/a>\u00a0a growing body of commentary from US and international analysts suggests that the next such crisis between the two nuclear-armed neighbours is not only more likely, but will prove dangerous with fewer opportunities for outside powers to contain it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a piece published on Tuesday, The Washington Post<\/em><\/a> warned that the world may be underestimating the risks. \u201cYou know the world scene is chaotic when we\u2019re approaching the first anniversary of a shooting war between two hostile nuclear powers and very few Americans remember it,\u201d the newspaper noted, adding that another crisis is \u201cprobably not a question of if, but when.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editorial described the May 2025 conflict as a new form of \u201cnon-contact\u201d war, involving missiles, drones and air power without a ground invasion. It cautioned that both sides may now believe they can fight a limited conventional war without triggering nuclear escalation \u2014 a conclusion that could prove dangerously flawed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WaPo<\/em> also pointed to shifting diplomatic dynamics under President Donald Trump. While acknowledging that US officials \u201cworked the phones and helped calm the situation\u201d, it also highlighted Indian unease over Trump\u2019s repeated claims that he brokered the ceasefire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA strong sense of independence and sovereignty is extraordinarily important in Indian political culture,\u201d the editorial observed, warning that strained ties could affect Washington\u2019s ability to mediate in a future crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An earlier report <\/a>by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the research arm of the US Congress, drew attention to another potential flashpoint: water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CRS noted that \u201cthe government of India has not presented evidence of a Pakistani link to the attack,\u201d yet responded by placing the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty \u201cin abeyance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report underscored the gravity of this move, pointing out that Islamabad considers water a \u201cVital National Interest\u201d and has warned that any attempt to disrupt flows \u201cwill be considered as an Act of War.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With around 80 per cent of Pakistan\u2019s agriculture dependent on the Indus basin, analysts say water tensions could emerge as a parallel escalation pathway alongside military confrontation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environmental risks were also the focus of a recent report by the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research (CSCR), which argues that the consequences of conflict extend far beyond the battlefield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe most significant, yet often overlooked, impact of war is on the environment of the region,\u201d the report states, warning that even a limited nuclear exchange could trigger \u201cnuclear cooling\u201d through the release of soot into the atmosphere. Such an event, it adds, could \u201ccool, dry, and darken the earth for decades.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study cautions that an India-Pakistan nuclear conflict could disrupt global food systems, leading to a \u201cnuclear famine\u201d that might cause starvation on a massive scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Writing in Foreign Affairs<\/em>, US scholar Elizabeth Threlkeld offered a more detailed look at how escalation dynamics are changing. \u201cIndia and Pakistan are already using the last exchange to identify gaps to fill and advantages to exploit should fighting break out again,\u201d she notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Threlkeld argues that the risk is shifting from deliberate escalation to inadvertent miscalculation. \u201cThat may reduce pressure for deliberate nuclear use, but it increases the risk of inadvertent escalation,\u201d she writes, adding that future conflicts will likely involve \u201cdeeper strikes, shorter timelines, and new domains.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She also cautions that Washington may struggle to respond effectively next time, particularly given friction with New Delhi. \u201cWashington may struggle to support de-escalation in a faster-moving, unfamiliar crisis,\u201d she warns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On its part, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) highlighted <\/a>how shifting diplomatic alignments are complicating the picture. It notes that \u201can additional area of tension, from India\u2019s perspective, has resulted from Trump\u2019s claim to have brokered a ceasefire\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the institute, US-Pakistan ties have strengthened since the conflict, with high-level engagement between Washington and Pakistan\u2019s leadership. Pakistan\u2019s role in mediating talks<\/a> related to the US-Iran crisis has further elevated its diplomatic standing, even as it fuels Indian concerns about a perceived tilt in US policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taken together, these assessments point to a sobering conclusion: while the May 2025 conflict stopped short of nuclear escalation, it may have lowered the threshold for future confrontation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON(National Times)- On the first anniversary of the\u00a0May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict,\u00a0a growing body of commentary from US and international analysts suggests that the next such crisis between the two nuclear-armed neighbours is not only more likely, but will prove dangerous with fewer opportunities for outside powers to contain it. In a piece published on Tuesday, The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":125360,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-125359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest_news","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nNext India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn - Nation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn - Nation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"WASHINGTON(National Times)- On the first anniversary of the\u00a0May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict,\u00a0a growing body of commentary from US and international analysts suggests that the next such crisis between the two nuclear-armed neighbours is not only more likely, but will prove dangerous with fewer opportunities for outside powers to contain it. In a piece published on Tuesday, The […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Nation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-06T07:03:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-06T07:03:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"670\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"370\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"humza Jahangir\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"humza Jahangir\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/\",\"name\":\"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn - Nation\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-06T07:03:12+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-05-06T07:03:14+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#\/schema\/person\/27efa35fa76e99f3ad7e7397d7332c16\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png\",\"width\":670,\"height\":370},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/\",\"name\":\"Nation\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#\/schema\/person\/27efa35fa76e99f3ad7e7397d7332c16\",\"name\":\"humza Jahangir\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/43feedd99bd6a90080d1621b7e6604364acb673ee979d3ffe5075557c14c68b9?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/43feedd99bd6a90080d1621b7e6604364acb673ee979d3ffe5075557c14c68b9?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"humza Jahangir\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/author\/humza\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn - Nation","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn - Nation","og_description":"WASHINGTON(National Times)- On the first anniversary of the\u00a0May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict,\u00a0a growing body of commentary from US and international analysts suggests that the next such crisis between the two nuclear-armed neighbours is not only more likely, but will prove dangerous with fewer opportunities for outside powers to contain it. In a piece published on Tuesday, The […]","og_url":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/","og_site_name":"Nation","article_published_time":"2026-05-06T07:03:12+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-05-06T07:03:14+00:00","og_image":[{"width":670,"height":370,"url":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"humza Jahangir","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"humza Jahangir","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/","url":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/","name":"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn - Nation","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png","datePublished":"2026-05-06T07:03:12+00:00","dateModified":"2026-05-06T07:03:14+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#\/schema\/person\/27efa35fa76e99f3ad7e7397d7332c16"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Untitled-design.png","width":670,"height":370},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/2026\/125359\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Next India-Pakistan conflict may be \u2018more dangerous\u2019, analysts warn"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#website","url":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/","name":"Nation","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#\/schema\/person\/27efa35fa76e99f3ad7e7397d7332c16","name":"humza Jahangir","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/43feedd99bd6a90080d1621b7e6604364acb673ee979d3ffe5075557c14c68b9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/43feedd99bd6a90080d1621b7e6604364acb673ee979d3ffe5075557c14c68b9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"humza Jahangir"},"url":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/author\/humza\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=125359"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125359\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":125361,"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125359\/revisions\/125361"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/125360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=125359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=125359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nationaltimes.pk\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=125359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}