Moscow(National times)- Intrusions into NATO\u2019s airspace blamed on Russia reached an unprecedented scale this month, raising questions about whether the Kremlin is trying to test the alliance\u2019s willingness and ability to respond to a direct attack or divert its attention and resources from the war in Ukraine. Russia has been encroaching on its NATO neighbors\u2019 airspace for decades, then either denying it happened or brushing it off as unintentional. But since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, such incursions have carried a bigger threat, none more so than when drones swarmed into Poland two weeks ago and caused NATO to scramble jets to shoot them down. Estonia said Russian fighter jets flew into its territory last week and remained there for 12 minutes \u2014 an incursion Estonia\u2019s foreign minister described as \u201cunprecedently brazen\u201d but that Russia denied happened. And Romania and Latvia reported that single Russian drones violated their airspace this month. With Moscow making slow but steady progress on the battlefield in Ukraine and holding a strong hand should it decide to talk peace, its recent forays into NATO airspace also raise questions about why it would risk triggering a direct military confrontation with the alliance. Here\u2019s a look at what\u2019s been happening and what Russia\u2019s motives might be: None of the intrusions of NATO airspace has had the scope of what happened in Poland on Sept. 10, when authorities say about 20 Russian drones flew deep over the countryside before being shot down by NATO jets or crashing on their own. It marked the first direct military engagement between the alliance and Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.Russia denied that it targeted Poland, and its ally Belarus claimed the drones\u2019 signals had been jammed by Ukraine, which borders Poland. But European leaders have cast it as a deliberate provocation, pointing to last week\u2019s violation of Estonian airspace and other recent incidents as further proof of some broader scheme orchestrated by Moscow. Before invading Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin demanded that NATO drop any plans to offer Kyiv membership in the alliance and roll back troop deployments near Russia\u2019s borders, including in the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, small former Soviet republics that joined NATO and the EU in the early 2000s. NATO rejected the demands. Russian President Vladimir Putin also warned NATO to not allow Kyiv to strike deep inside Russia with Western-supplied longer-range weapons, threatening that Moscow could respond by targeting military facilities in NATO countries that enable such attacks. Doing so would carry huge risks, including for Moscow, as it could spark a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, which has a huge edge in conventional weapons. Some experts view the recent uptick in NATO airspace incursions as an attempt by Russia to see how the alliance reacts so that it can exploit any fissures or indecision. And some believe Russia is hoping to divert NATO\u2019s attention and resources from supporting Ukraine to defending its own territory. \u201cMaybe their calculation was that now the European countries have to send something additionally to Estonia regarding the air defense assets, and that means they cannot send it to Ukraine,\u201d Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said. \u201cRussia is trying to tear us out from Ukraine.\u201d Mark Galeotti, an expert in Russian politics who heads the Mayak Intelligence consultancy, thinks the intrusions are part of a \u201ccoercive signaling\u201d aimed at discouraging NATO members from offering robust security guarantees to Kyiv, including the possible deployment of their troops to Ukraine as part of a peace deal. Moscow has warned that it won\u2019t accept any NATO troops in Ukraine. \u201cThis is Moscow trying to say, \u2018Just look how dangerous things already are and how dangerous they could get. Remember we are more daring, willful, reckless, resolute \u2014 use whatever adjective you want, but the point is, we are more of it.\u2019\u201d Galeotti said on a podcast. Edward Lucas, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Russia might be trying to highlight NATO\u2019s weaknesses to try to \u201cplant the corrosive question in allies\u2019 minds: Are you willing to go to war with Russia on behalf of the Baltic states?\u201d \u201cRussia does not need to defeat NATO militarily if it can defeat it politically,\u201d Lucas wrote in an analysis. \u201cIf alliance members do not believe that other members will come to their aid when they are attacked, they feel isolated.\u201d Russia specifically might have wanted to gauge the reaction of NATO\u2019s biggest member, the U.S., said Max Bergmann, head of Europe, Russia, and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. \u201cI think it was quite underwhelming,\u201d he said of the U.S.’s response to the incursions. \u201cI think what we are seeing is the United States under President Trump doesn\u2019t feel responsible for European security, and that will be quite enlightening to the Russians. They may escalate even more.\u201d After its drone swarm incident, Poland triggered a NATO mechanism that allows any member to demand a full meeting if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. Soon after, the alliance launched an operation to bolster its air defenses along its eastern flank. NATO held discussions again Tuesday in response to the Russian fighter jets that flew into Estonian airspace and warned Moscow that it would any and all means to defend against further breaches. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland would, \u201cwithout discussion,\u201d shoot down any object that flies into its territory. But it\u2019s unclear if all NATO allies would back such an aggressive approach, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte saying Tuesday that decisions on whether to fire on intruding aircraft would be based on \u201cavailable intelligence regarding the threat posed by the aircraft.\u201d U.S. President Donald Trump, who initially stunned allies by saying the Russian drones\u2019 intrusion into Polish airspace \u201ccould have been a mistake,\u201d sent a tougher message Tuesday, answering affirmatively when asked whether NATO should shoot down intruding Russian aircraft. He demurred, though, when prodded if the U.S. would step in to back the alliance in such case.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Moscow(National times)- Intrusions into NATO\u2019s airspace blamed on Russia reached an unprecedented scale this month, raising questions about whether the Kremlin is trying to test the alliance\u2019s willingness and ability to respond to a direct attack or divert its attention and resources from the war in Ukraine. Russia has been encroaching on its NATO neighbors\u2019 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112806,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-112805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n