Pakistan(National Times)- But the scale of the attacks, Israel\u2019s choice of targets, and its politicians\u2019 own words suggest another, longer-term objective: toppling the regime itself. The strikes early on Friday hit not just Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities and missile factories but also key figures in the country\u2019s military chain of command and its nuclear scientists, blows that appear aimed at diminishing Iran\u2019s credibility both at home and among its allies in the region \u2013 factors that could destabilize the Iranian leadership, experts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOne assumes that one of the reasons that Israel is doing that is that they\u2019re hoping to see regime change,\u201d said Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former senior official under President George W. Bush. \u201cIt would like to see the people of Iran rise up,\u201d he said, adding that the limited civilian casualties in the initial round of attacks also spoke to a broader aim. In a video address shortly after Israeli fighter jets began striking Iranian nuclear facilities and air defence systems, Israel\u2019s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, appealed to the Iranian people directly. Israel\u2019s actions against Iran\u2019s ally Hezbollah had led to a new government in Lebanon and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, he said. The Iranian people had an opportunity too: \u201cI believe that the day of your liberation is near. And when that happens, the great friendship between our two ancient peoples will flourish once again,\u201d said Netanyahu. But despite the damage inflicted by the unprecedented Israeli attack, decades of enmity toward Israel \u2013 not only among Iran\u2019s rulers but its majority-Shi\u2019ite population \u2013 raises questions about the prospect for fomenting enough public support to oust an entrenched theocratic leadership in Tehran backed by loyal security forces. Singh cautioned that no one knows what conditions would be required for an opposition to coalesce in Iran. Friday\u2019s assault was the first phase of what Israel said would be a prolonged operation. Experts said they expected Israel would continue to go after key Iranian nuclear infrastructure to delay Tehran\u2019s march to a nuclear bomb \u2013 even if Israel on its own does not have the capability to eliminate Iran\u2019s nuclear program. Iran says its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes only. The U.N. nuclear watchdog concluded this week that it was in violation of its obligations under the global non-proliferation treaty. Israel\u2019s first salvoes targeted senior figures in Iran\u2019s military and scientific establishment, took out much of the country\u2019s air defence system and destroyed the above-ground enrichment plant at Iran\u2019s nuclear site. \u201cAs a democratic country, the State of Israel believes that it is up to the people of a country to shape their national politics, and choose their government,\u201d the Israeli embassy in Washington told Reuters. \u201cThe future of Iran can only be determined by the Iranian people.\u201d Netanyahu has called for a change in Iran\u2019s government, including in September. U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s administration, while acquiescing to Israel\u2019s strikes and helping its close ally fend off Iran\u2019s retaliatory missile barrage, has given no indication that it seeks regime change in Tehran. The White House and Iran\u2019s mission to the United Nations in New York also did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ENDING NUCLEAR PROGRAMME BEYOND REACH, FOR NOW<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israel has much further to go if it is to dismantle Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, and military analysts have always said it might be impossible to totally disable the well-fortified sites dotted around Iran. The Israeli government has also cautioned that Iran\u2019s nuclear programme could not be entirely destroyed by means of a military campaign. \u201cThere\u2019s no way to destroy a nuclear programme by military means,\u201d Israel\u2019s National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi told Israel\u2019s Channel 13 TV. The military campaign could, however, create conditions for a deal with the United States that would thwart the nuclear programme. Analysts also remain sceptical that Israel will have the munitions needed to obliterate Iran\u2019s nuclear project on its own. \u201cIsrael probably cannot take out completely the nuclear project on its own without the American participation,\u201d Sima Shine, a former chief Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel\u2019s Institute for National Security Studies, told reporters on Friday. While setting back Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme would have value for Israel, the hope for regime change could explain why Israel went after so many senior military figures, potentially throwing the Iranian security establishment into confusion and chaos. \u201cThese people were very vital, very knowledgeable, many years in their jobs, and they were a very important component of the stability of the regime, specifically the security stability of the regime,\u201d said Shine. \u201cIn the ideal world, Israel would prefer to see a change of regime, no question about that,\u201d she said. But such a change would come with risk, said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East who is now at the Atlantic Council. If Israel succeeds in removing Iran\u2019s leadership, there is no guarantee the successor that emerges would not be even more hardline in pursuit of conflict with Israel. \u201cFor years, many in Israel have insisted that regime change in Iran would prompt a new and better day \u2013 that nothing could be worse than the current theocratic regime,\u201d Panikoff said. \u201cBut history tells us it can always be worse.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Pakistan(National Times)- But the scale of the attacks, Israel\u2019s choice of targets, and its politicians\u2019 own words suggest another, longer-term objective: toppling the regime itself. The strikes early on Friday hit not just Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities and missile factories but also key figures in the country\u2019s military chain of command and its nuclear scientists, blows […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106106,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-106105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","entry"],"yoast_head":"\n